NTPC - National Thermal Power Corporation

NTPC -National Thermal Power Corporation.

NTPC likely to commission 250 MW project at Bhilai and complete the COD of unit I of 250 MW before FY09. One unit of 500 MW at Kahalgaon also likely to be commissioned in the fourth quarter.

NTPC may commission 750 MW of fresh capacity in the current quarter. This includes 250 MW under JV with SAIL and one unit of 500 MW at Kahalgaon Stage II. The company is also working on commercialization of the first unit of Bhilai Expansion project of 250 MW by the end of this quarter.

Strong likelihood of significant slippage in meeting targeted capacity given delay in upcoming projects. Equipment orders for XIth plan projects worth 1760 MW are yet to be placed.

Impact of CERC norms likely to be neutral to positive.

CERC has raised regulated return on Equity from 14% to 15.5% for the FY09-14 period. We believe new tariff regulations to be neutral to positive for NTPC. Loss of revenues on account of lower tax reimbursement and tightening of operating norms may be offset by higher RoE, improved incentive structure and higher O&M expense recovery. Management indicated that greater clarity on impact of these regulations will be evident by Q1 FY10.

Rich Valuations - higher premium for visible growth.

NTPC is currently trading at 17.4x and 15.4x FY09 and FY10 earnings respectively. On a P/BV basis, the stock is trading at 2.5x despite having Est ROE of 15.1% in FY09. The current P/BV does not compare favourably with global peer average of 1.8x. Any sharp decline from current price could be used to buy the stock with long term view.